Since the Kentucky Derby began in 1875, favorites have won about one in every three races. The most commonly cited figures are:
- Overall (1875–2025): Around 34–37% win rate, meaning roughly 56–40 out of 150–118 races depending on the exact start year and counting method Bookmakers Review+1.
- Since 1908 (with pari-mutuel betting): 40 wins out of 118 races, or about 34%Bookmakers Review.
- Since 2000: 38.5% win rate over 26 years RotoWire.
Recent Trends
- The longest streak of consecutive favorite wins was six straight from 2013 to 2018 (Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, Justify) America’s Best Racing.
- Since 2018, no favorite has won — the last was Justify in 2018 Bookmakers Review+1.
- The current streak (2019–2025) is 6 years without a favorite win, with several second-place finishes (e.g., Tiz the Law 2020, Epicenter 2022, Journalism 2025) RotoWire+1.
Historical Context
- Favorites went 20 years without a win from 1980 to 1999, ending with Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 America’s Best Racing.
- In the early years (1875–1886), favorites dominated, winning 7 of the first 12 editions America’s Best Racing.
In short: Betting the Kentucky Derby favorite has historically paid off about one-third of the time, but the last six years have been a dry spell for chalk, making it a less reliable bet in recent history.
